Our Renewable Future

References

Introduction

[1]. United Nations, Framework Convention on Climate Change, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, FCCC/CP/2015/L.9 (December 12, 2015).

[2]. Steven Mohr et al., “Projection of world fossil fuels by country,” Fuel 141 (2015): 120–135, doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2014.10.030.

[3]. Andrew Nikiforuk, The Energy of Slaves: Oil and the New Servitude (Vancouver, BC: Greystone Books, 2012).

[4]. Mikael Höök et al., “Hydrocarbon liquefaction: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 372, no. 2006 (2014): 20120319, doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0319. David Murphy, Charles Hall, and Bobby Powers, “New perspectives on the energy return on (energy) investment (EROI) of corn ethanol,” Environment, development and sustainability 13, no. 1 (2011): 179–202.

[5]. See Chapter 5 in Michael Carolan, Cheaponomics: The High Cost of Low Prices (New York: Routledge, 2014).

Chapter 1

[1]. Charles Hall and John Day. “Revisiting the Limits to Growth after Peak Oil.” American Scientist 97, no. 3 (2009): 230–237. Michael Dale, Susan Krumdieck, and Pat Bodger, “Net Energy Yield from Production of Conventional Oil.” Energy Policy 39, no. 11 (2011): 7095–7102.

[2]. David Murphy, “The Implications of the Declining Energy Return on Investment of Oil Production,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 372, no. 2006 (2014): 20130126, doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0126.

[3]. Michael Carbajales-Dale, Susan Krumdieck, and Pat Bodger, “Global Energy Modelling—A Biophysical Approach (GEMBA) Part 2: Methodology,Ecological Economics 73 (2012): 158–167, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.06.010. Michael Dale and Sally Benson, “Energy Balance of the Global Photovoltaic (PV) Industry: Is the PV Industry a Net Electricity Producer?,” Environmental Science and Technology 47, no. 7 (2013): 3482–3489, doi:10.1021/es3038824.

[4]. Jessica Lambert et al., “Energy, EROI and Quality of Life,” Energy Policy 64 (2014): 153–167, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.001.

[5]. Charles Hall, Stephen Balogh, and David Murphy, “What Is the Minimum EROI That a Sustainable Society Must Have?” Energies 2, no. 1 (2009): 25–47.

[6]. Michael Dale and Sally Benson, “Energy Balance of the Global Photovoltaic (PV) Industry: Is the PV Industry a Net Electricity Producer?,” Environmental Science and Technology 47, no. 7 (2013): 3482–3489, doi:10.1021/es3038824.

[7]. Richard Heinberg, “The Brief, Tragic Reign of Consumerism—and the Birth of a Happy Alternative,” Post Carbon Institute, Articles + Blog, April 14, 2014.

[8]. U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, “Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System,” accessed September 30, 2015.

[9]. Charles Hall and Kent Klitgaard, Energy and the Wealth of Nations: Understanding the Biophysical Economy (New York: Springer, 2012), 73.

[10]. Sassan Saatchi et al., “Benchmark Map of Forest Carbon Stocks in Tropical Regions across Three Continents,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 24 (2011): 9899–9904. Saatchi et al. report between 100 to 700 (oven dry) Mg/ha above-ground biomass in tropical forests, which converts to 40 to 283 Mg/acre (1 ha = 2.47 acre); the Biomass Energy Centre reports a net calorific value of 19 MJ per metric ton of wood. Thus 40,000 to 283,000 kg/acre × 19 MJ/ kg = ~750,000 to 5,377,000 MJ/acre.

[11]. Harald Sverdrup, Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, and Deniz Koca, “An Assessment of Metal Supply Sustainability as an Input to Policy: Security of Supply Extraction Rates, Stocks-in-Use, Recycling, and Risk of Scarcity,Journal of Cleaner Production June 2015, doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.085.

[12]. National Research Council, Coal: Research and Development to Support National Policy, National Academy of Sciences (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2007). Emily Grubert, “Reserve Reporting in the United States Coal Industry,” Energy Policy 44 (2012): 174–84, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.01.035.

[13]. International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2014).

[14]. Patrick Moriarty and Damon Honnery, “What Is the Global Potential for Renewable Energy?” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 16 (2012): 244–52, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2011.07.151.

[15]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Energy Projects and Candidate Landfills,” last modified March 13, 2015.

[16]. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Coal Transportation Rates to the Electric Power Sector,” Table 1 and Table 3c, accessed October 1, 2015.

[17]. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “How Much Electricity Is Lost in Transmission and Distribution in the United States?,” accessed October 1, 2015.

Chapter 2

[1]. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2015 (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2015).

[2]. Ezra Krendel, “9.1 Sources of Energy, Muscle-Generated Power,” in Marks’ Standard Handbook for Mechanical Engineers, 11th ed., ed. Eugene Avallone, Theodore Baumeister III, and Ali Sadegh (New York: McGraw Hill, 2007).

[3]. International Energy Agency, “World: Balance (2012),” accessed October 1, 2015.

[4]. International Energy Agency, “World: Balance (2012),” Input 5083 (Mtoe)/losses 2784 (Mtoe) = 54% loss rate.

Chapter 3

[1]. International Energy Agency, “World: Balance (2012).” International Energy Agency, “United States: Final Consumption (2012),” accessed October 1, 2015.

[2]. BP, “Data Workbook—Statistical Review 2015,” accessed October 2, 2015.

[3]. BP, “Data Workbook—Statistical Review 2015.”

[4]. Chris Mooney, “Here’s How Much Faster Wind and Solar Are Growing Than Fossil Fuels,” Washington Post, March 9, 2015.

[5]. Vishal Shah, Jerimiah Booream-Phelps, and Susie Min, “2014 Outlook: Let the Second Gold Rush Begin,” Deutsche Bank, January 6, 2014.

[6]. Deborah Lawrence, “Investment in Solar Stocks Crushed Big Oil,” Energy Policy Forum, November 4, 2014.

[7]. James. Martinson, “The True Benefits of Wind Power,” Newsweek, April 21, 2015.

[8]. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Table 6.7.B. Capacity Factors for Utility Scale Generators Not Primarily Using Fossil Fuels, January 2013–July 2015,” accessed October 2, 2015.

[9]. Michael Dale and Sally Benson, “Energy Balance of the Global Photovoltaic (PV) Industry: Is the PV Industry a Net Electricity Producer?”

[10]. Mark Schwartz, “Stanford Scientists Calculate the Carbon Footprint of Grid-Scale Battery Technologies,” Stanford Report, March 5, 2013.

[11]. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Pumped Storage Provides Grid Reliability Even with Net Generation Loss,” Today In Energy, July, 8, 2013.

[12]. Charles Barnhart and Sally Benson, “On the Importance of Reducing the Energetic and Material Demands of Electrical Energy Storage,” Energy & Environmental Science 6, no. 4 (2013): 1083–92, doi:10.1039/C3EE24040A.

[13]. Tom Murphy, “Pump Up the Storage,” Do the Math, November 15, 2011, accessed October 2, 2015.

[14]. David Biello, “Inside the Solar-Hydrogen House: No More Power Bills—Ever,” Scientific American, June 19, 2008. See also Shannon Page and Susan Krumdieck, “System-Level Energy Efficiency Is the Greatest Barrier to Development of the Hydrogen Economy,” Energy Policy 37, no. 9 (2009): 3325–35, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.009.

[15]. Matthew Pellow, et al., “Hydrogen or Batteries for Grid Storage? A Net Energy Analysis,” Energy and Environmental Science 8 (2015): 1938–52, doi:10.1039/C4EE04041D.

[16]. Matthew Pellow, et al., “Hydrogen or Batteries for Grid Storage?”

[17]. Alice Friedemann, “Making the Most Energy Dense Battery from the Palette of the Periodic Table,” Energy Skeptic, April 15, 2015.

[18]. Mark Schwartz, “Stanford Scientists Calculate the Carbon Footprint of Grid-Scale Battery Technologies.”

[19]. Mark Schwartz, “Stanford Scientists Calculate the Carbon Footprint of Grid-Scale Battery Technologies.”

[20]. Charles Barnhart, Michael Dale, Adam Brandt, and Sally Benson, “The Energetic Implications of Curtailing versus Storing Solar-and Wind-Generated Electricity,” Energy & Environmental Science 6, no. 10 (2013): 2804–10.

[21]. Kris De Decker, “Off-Grid: How Sustainable Is Stored Sunlight,” Low-Tech Magazine, accessed October 1, 2015.

[22]. Shalke Cloete, “The Fundamental Limitations of Renewable Energy,” Energy Collective, September 6, 2013.

[23]. Mark Jacobson et al. “Low-Cost Solution to the Grid Reliability Problem with 100% Penetration of Intermittent Wind, Water, and Solar for All Purposes,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 112, no. 49 (December 8, 2015): 15060–65, doi:10.1073/pnas.1510028112.

[24]. International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme and International Renewable Energy Agency, Thermal Energy Storage: Technology Brief, January 2013.

[25]. Kurt Zenz House, “The Limits of Energy Storage Technology,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 20, 2009.

[26]. Florian Steinke, Philipp Wolfrum, and Clemens Hoffmann, “Grid vs. Storage in a 100% Renewable Europe,” Renewable Energy 50 (February 2013): 826–32, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2012.07.044.

[27]. T. Mai, D. Sandor, R. Wiser, and T. Schneider, Renewable Electricity Futures Study: Executive Summary (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2012).

[28]. Electric Power Research Institute, Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid, March 29, 2011.

[29]. Lannis Kannberg et al., GridWiseTM: The Benefits of a Transformed Energy System, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, (Springfield VA: U.S. Department of Commerce, September 2003).

[30]. William Atkinson, “Beyond Deployment Smart Meter Maintenance, Repair and Replacement,” Intelligent Utility, January/February 2009. See also K. T. Weaver, “Congressional Testimony: ‘Smart’ Meters Have a Life of 5 to 7 Years,” Smart Grid Awareness, October 29, 2015.

[31]. Marco Silva, Hugo Morais, and Zita Vale, “An Integrated Approach for Distributed Energy Resource Short-Term Scheduling in Smart Grids Considering Realistic Power System Simulation,” Energy Conversion and Management 64 (2012): 273–88, accessed October 3, 2015.

[32]. Elizabeth Boyle, “V2G Generates Electricity—and Cash,” University of Delaware UDaily, December 9, 2007.

[33]. Pekka E. Kauppi et al., “Returning Forests Analyzed with the Forest Identity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103, no. 46 (2006): 17574–79.

[34]. REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: Ren21 Secretariat, 2014), 31–37.

[35]. REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report, 13.

[36]. REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report, 13.

[37]. The International Energy Agency estimates that the world can double hydroelectric output by 2050, accessed October 1, 2015.

[38]. REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report, 39.

[39]. On induced seismicity, see Geoscience Australia, Induced Seismicity and Geothermal Power Development in Australia, (undated).

[40]. REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report, 38

[41]. Benjamin Matek, 2015 Annual U.S. & Global Geothermal Power Production Report, Geothermal Energy Association (2015), 15.

[42]. Idaho National Laboratory, The Future of Geothermal Energy: Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century (U.S. Department of Energy, November 2006). Adam Goldstein and Ralph Braccio, 2013 Market Trends Report: Geothermal Technologies Office (U.S. Department of Energy, January 2014), vi.

[43]. See for example T. Mai et al., Renewable Electricity Futures Study Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2012).

[44]. Lauren Frayer, “Tiny Spanish Island Nears Its Goal: 100 Percent Renewable Energy,” National Public Radio, September 28, 2014.

[45]. See, for example, The Solutions Project.

[46]. “Will Renewables Replace Fossil Fuels?,” recorded discussion with Mark Jacobson, David Blittersdorf, and Tom Murphy, The Energy Xchange, September 1, 2015.

[47]. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiative, The Future of Solar Energy (2015), xii–xx.

[48] Michael Dale and Sally Benson, “Energy Balance of the Global Photovoltaic (PV) Industry: Is the PV Industry a Net Electricity Producer?”

[49]. Ugo Bardi, Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet (White River Jct., VT: Chelsea Green, 2014), 131.

[50]. Amanda Adams and David Keith. “Are Global Wind Power Resource Estimates Overstated?” Environmental Research Letters 8, no. 1 (2013): 015021.

[51]. Kate Marvel, Ben Kravitz, and Ken Caldeira, “Geophysical Limits to Global Wind Power,” Nature Climate Change 3 (2013),  118–21.

[52]. Alice Salt, “Wind Turbines Can Be Hazardous to Human Health,” Cochlear Fluids Research Laboratory, Washington University, St. Louis, April 2, 2014.

[53]. Dave Levitan, “Is Anything Stopping a Truly Massive Build-Out of Desert Solar Power?” Scientific American, July 1, 2013.

[54]. Red Eléctrica de España, “The Spanish Electricity System 2014” (REE: Madrid, 2015), 11.

[55]. Fraunhofer ISE, “Annual Electricity Generation in Germany,” accessed October 1, 2015.

[56]. BP, “Data Workbook—Statistical Review 2015.”

[57]. Red Eléctrica de España, “The Spanish Electricity System 2014.”

[58]. Toby Couture, “Booms, Busts, and Retroactive Cuts: Spain’s RE Odyssey,” E3 Analytics, February 2011.

[59]. Andres Cala, “Renewable Energy in Spain Is Taking a Beating,” New York Times, October 8, 2013, “The Lesson in Renewable Energy Development from Spain,” Renewable Energy World, July 30, 2013.

[60]. Harry Wirth, ed., Recent Facts about Photovoltaics in Germany (Freiburg: Fraunhofer ISE, 2015), 10.

[61]. Bruno Burger, Electricity Production from Solar and Wind in Germany in 2014 (Freiburg: Fraunhofer ISE, December 29, 2014).

[62]. Kiley Kroh, “Germany Sets New Record, Generating 74% of Power Needs from Renewable Energy,” Climate Progress, May 13, 2014.

[63]. Craig Morris, “Rebuttal: Renewables Make Millions of Germans Multidozenaires,” Renewables International, May 16, 2014.

[64]. California Energy Commission and California Public Utilities Commission, “California Solar Statistics: Program Totals by Administrator,” accessed October 25, 2015.

[65]. Solar Server, “Energy Transition 2.0: Energy Storage and Solar PV,” October 15, 2013.

[66]. Matthew Karnitschnig, “Germany’s Expensive Gamble on Renewable Energy,” Wall Street Journal, August 26, 2014.

[67]. World Bank, World Development Indicators, “Industry, Value Added (% of GDP),” accessed October 1, 2015.

[68] Christina Roselund and John Bernhardt, “Lessons Learned along Europe’s Road to Renewables,” IEEE Spectrum, May 4 2015.

[69]. Christopher Helman, “Will Solar Cause a Death Spiral for Utilities?,” Forbes, January 30, 2015.

[70]. Janine Schmidt, “Renewable Energies and Base Load Power Plants: Are They Compatible?,” Renews Special 35 (June 2010), German Renewable Energies Agency. See also Chris Nelder, “Why Base Load Power Is Doomed,” ZDnet, March 28, 2012.

[71].Joby Warrick, “Utilities Wage Campaign against Rooftop Solar,” Washington Post, March 7, 2015.

[72]. Joby Warrick, “Utilities Wage Campaign against Rooftop Solar.”

Chapter 4

[1]. One barrel of oil = 5.7 million BTU, or 1670 kWh. The average human works at a power output of about 70 W. Multiplied by an 8–9 hour workday a person produces about 0.6 kWh of work per day; 1670 kWh ÷ 0.6 kWh per day = 2833 days. At 250 workdays per year, this equals about 11 years.

[2]. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Estimated US Energy Use in 2014: ~ 98.3 Quads,” accessed October 1, 2015.

[3]. See Rose George, Ninety Percent of Everything (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2013).

[4]. Danielle Murray, “Oil and Food: A Rising Security Challenge,” Earth Policy Institute, May 9, 2005. Martin Heller and Gregory Keoleian. “Assessing the sustainability of the US Food System: a Life Cycle Perspective,” Agricultural Systems 76, no. 3 (2003): 1007–41. According to Murray, 21 percent of all food system energy goes to agriculture, and 34 percent of energy used in agriculture is gasoline and diesel; thus 7.1 percent of all food system energy is oil used in agriculture; add to that 14 percent of food system energy that is consumed in transport (presumably nearly all oil) for a total of 21 percent.

[5]. James Ayre, “Electric Car Demand Growing, Global Market Hits 740,000 Units,” Clean Technica, March 28, 2015.

[6]. James Ayre, “Electric Car Demand Growing.”

[7]. Sérgio Faias et al, “Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions Evaluation for Electric and Internal Combustion Vehicles Using a LCA Approach,” paper presented at the International Conference on Renewable Energies and Power Quality, La Coruna, Spain, March 25–27, 2015.

[8]. BP, Statistical Review of World Energy (annual).

[9]. “Energy and Road Construction—What’s the Mileage of Roadway?” Pavement Interactive, February 21, 2012.

[10]. Central Intelligence Agency, “The World Factbook, Field Listing: Roadways,” accessed October 1, 2015.

[11]. US Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center, “Alternative Fuels Data Center—Fuel Properties Comparison,” accessed October 1, 2015. US Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center, “Charging Plug-In Electric Vehicles at Home,” accessed October 1, 2015. 33.70 kWh has 100% of the energy of one gallon of gasoline. Assuming a typical sedan in 2014 fuel economy of 28 miles per gallon, 28 ÷ 33.70 = 0.83 miles per kWh for a gasoline-powered sedan. An electric sedan in 2014 got 100 miles per 34 kWh, or 2.94 miles per kWh.

[12]. US Department Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Freight Facts and Figures 2013 (January 2014).

[13]. Sean Kilgar, “Rolling Down That Electric Highway,” Fleet Owner, August 13, 2014, accessed October 1, 2015.

[14]. See, for example, Josie Garthwaite, “Car2go, Daimler-Backed Sharing Program, to Go Electric in San Diego,” New York Times Wheels blog, July 13, 2011.

[15]. US Energy Information Administration, “Frequently Asked Questions: How Much Ethanol Is Produced, Imported, and Consumed in the United States?” accessed October 1, 2015. US Energy Information Administration, “Table 1. U.S. Biodiesel Production Capacity and Production,” accessed October 1, 2015.

[16]. US Energy Information Administration, “Frequently Asked Questions: How Much Gasoline Does the United States Consume?” accessed October 1, 2015.

[17]. Air and Transport Action Group, “Facts and Figures,” accessed October 1, 2015.

[18]. LaznaTech, “Technical Overview,” accessed October 1, 2015.

[19]. Sean Buchanan, “European Biofuel Bubble Bursts,” Inter Press Service News Agency, April 28, 2015.

[20]. US Energy Information Administration, “Cellulosic Biofuels Begin to Flow but in Lower Volumes than Foreseen by Statutory Targets,” Today in Energy, February 26, 2013.

[21]. Jim Lane, “Where Are We with Algae Biofuels?” Biofuels Digest, October 13, 2014.

[22]. US Energy Information Administration, “International Energy Statistics: Consumption of Jet Fuel,” 2013, accessed October, 1, 2015.

[23]. US Department of Agriculture, “Global Production of Vegetable Oils from 2000/01 to 2014/15 (in million metric tons),” via Statista, accessed October 1, 2015.

[24]. Charles Hall, Stephen Balogh, and David Murphy, “What Is the Minimum EROI That a Sustainable Society Must Have?” Energies 2, no. 1 (2009): 25–47. Charles Hall, Bruce Dale, and David Pimentel, “Seeking to Understand the Reasons for Different Energy Return on Investment (EROI) Estimates for Biofuels,” Sustainability 3, no. 12 (2011): 2413–32.

[25]. Jason M. Townsend et al., “Energy Return on Investment (EROI), Liquid Fuel Production, and Consequences for Wildlife,” in Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation, ed. Brian Czech and J. Edward Gates (New York: Springer, 2014), 29–61, accessed, October 2015.

[26]. C. Matthew Rendleman and Hosein Shapouri, “New Technologies in Ethanol Production,” US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Economic Report Number 842 (February 2007), 5.

[27]. Nuria Basset et al., “The Net Energy of Biofuels,” Erasmus Intensive Program: Energy Production from Biomass in the European Union (June 2010).

[28]. Johanna Ivy, Summary of Electrolytic Hydrogen Production: Milestone Completion Report (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Lab, September 2004),  8.

[29]. See, for example, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Research,” accessed October 1, 2015.

[30]. Matthew Pellow et al., “Hydrogen or Batteries for Grid Storage? A Net Energy Analysis,” Energy and Environmental Science 8 (2015), 1938–52, doi:10.1039/C4EE04041D.

[31]. “The Dawn of Hydrogen,” Ship and Bunker, August 6, 2013.

[32]. J. David Hughes, Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check on U.S. Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil and Shale Boom (Santa Rosa, CA: Post Carbon Institute, 2014). J. David Hughes, Shale Gas Reality Check: Revisiting the U.S. Department of Energy Play-by-Play Forecasts through 2040 from Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (Santa Rosa, CA: Post Carbon Institute, 2015).

[33]. Werner Zittel et al., “Fossil and Nuclear Fuels—the Supply Outlook,” (Berlin: Energy Watch Group, March 2013).

[34]. Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, “Bunker Fuel Industry: China and Singapore Account Majority of Global Bunker Fuel Consumption,” August 6, 2015.

[35]. Katharine Sanderson, “Ship Kites in to Port,” Nature (February 8, 2008), doi:10.1038/news.2008.564. Jan Lundberg, “Marine Sail Freight—America Gets Serious about Clean, Renewable Energy for Transport,” Sail Transport Network, September 15, 2015.

[36]. See Sail Transport Network.

[37]. Julian Jackson, “Sail Transport Network—the Past Meets the Future,” Earth Times, June 10, 2011.

[38]. Julian Jackson, “Sail Transport Network.”

[39]. International Energy Agency, Special Report: World Energy Investment Outlook (Paris, 2014).

Chapter 5

[1]. International Energy Agency (IEA), “Scenarios and Projections,” accessed September 30, 2015.

[2] International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2014).

[3]. Jessica Lambert et al., “Energy, EROI and Quality of Life,” Energy Policy 64 (2014): 153–67, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.001.

[4]. Ida Kubiszewski, Cutler Cleveland, and Peter Endres, “Meta-analysis of Net Energy Return for Wind Power Systems,” Renewable Energy 35 (2010): 218–25, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2009.01.012.

[5] Marco Raugei, Pere Fullana-i-Palmer, and Vasilis Fthenakis, “The Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) of Photovoltaics: Methodology and Comparisons with Fossil Fuel Life Cycles,” Energy Policy 45 (June 2012): 576–82, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.008.

[6]. Pedro Prieto and Charles A. S. Hall, Spain’s Photovoltaic Revolution: The Energy Return on Investment (New York: Springer, 2011).

[7]. Graham Palmer, Energy in Australia: Peak Oil, Solar Power, and Asia’s Economic Growth (New York: Springer, 2014).

[8]. Michael Carbajales-Dale et al., “Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of Solar PV: An Attempt at Reconciliation,” Proceedings of the IEEE 103, no. 7 (2015): 995–99, doi:10.1109/JPROC.2015.2438471.

[9]. Michael Carbajales-Dale et al., “Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of Solar PV.

[10]. Khagendra P. Bhandari et al., “Energy Payback Time (EPBT) and Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) of Solar Photovoltaic Systems: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 47 (2015): 133–41, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2015.02.057.

[11]. Ida Kubiszewski, Cutler Cleveland, and Peter Endres, “Meta-analysis of Net Energy Return for Wind Power Systems.”

[12]. D. Weissbach et al., “Energy Intensities, EROIs (Energy Returned on Invested), and Energy Payback Times of Electricity Generating Power Plants,” Energy 52 (2013): 210–21, accessed October 2, 2015, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.029.

[13]. John Weber, “Machines Making Machines Making Machines,” sunweber blog, December 3, 2011.

[14]. The Sahara Solar Breeder Foundation has plans along these lines, but it is unclear what stage they have achieved.  Accessed October 2, 2015.

[15]. Kris De Decker, “How sustainable Is PV Solar Power?,” Low Tech Magazine, April 2015.

[16]. Mark Z. Jacobson et al., “100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States,” Energy and Environmental Science 8, no. 7 (2015): 2093–2117.

[17]. Daniel J. Graeber, “Support for Renewables Lacking, Global Reports Find,” UPI, May 19, 2015.

[18]. Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi, “A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables,” Scientific American, (November 1, 2009).

[19]. Frankfurt School–UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance (FS-UNEP) and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015–Chart Pack (Frankfurt: FS-UNEP, 2015). International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Investment Outlook 2014 Fact Sheet (Paris: IEA, 2014).

[20]. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “Military Expenditure,” accessed October 2, 2015.

[21]. Richard Heinberg, The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality (Gabriola Island, BC: New Society Publishers, 2011).

[22]. World Bank, “World Bank Open Data,” accessed September 7, 2015.

[23]. See the work of Emmanuel Saez at University of California–Berkeley.

[24] Alexander Gloy, “Analyze This—the Fed Is Not Printing Enough Money!,” Zero Hedge, September 8, 2012.

[25]. Based on median household income in the United States and the United Kingdom: Office for National Statistics (ONS), Middle Income Households, 1977–2010/11 (London: ONS, 2013). Carmen DeNavas-Walt and Bernadette D. Proctor, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014 (Washington: US Census Bureau, 2015).

[26]. International Energy Agency, Energy Efficiency Indicators for Public Electricity Production from Fossil Fuels (Paris, 2008).

[27]. International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2014).

[28]. “Improving IC Engine Efficiency,” University of Washington, accessed October 2, 2015.

[29]. “Electrical Motor Efficiency,” Engineering Toolbox, accessed October 2, 2015.

[30] Ryan Carlyle, “If All U.S. Cars Suddenly Became Electric, How Much More Electricity Would We Need?” Slate, May 2, 2014.

[31]. This figure is difficult to calculate globally. Space conditioning accounts for about 45 percent of residential energy use in the United States, less in Europe, and even less in China and India. The US Energy Information Administration shows about 52 quadrillion Btu of site use energy in the residential sector, or 92 counting electricity generation losses. Assuming that space conditioning is about 30 percent site use on average, then the reduction would be about 25 quadrillion Btu or 620 Mtoe. But not all of this is in the form of electricity, so starting at 92 overstates the savings. On the basis of site energy, the savings would be about 350 Mtoe.

[32]. Mike Haseler, “Enerconics: The Relationship between Energy and GDP,” Scottish Skeptic, October 18, 2013.

[33]. A significant problem with economic intensity measurements as done today, is that they include GDP from all sources (including trade), but energy use from only within the national boundaries. That is, the embodied energy in imports is not counted toward energy consumption (just as embodied energy of exports is not deducted from energy used). For a large importer such as the United States, the offshoring of manufacturing has led to efficiency improvements economy-wide that may be totally offset by the lower efficiency of production in China, for example. See Thomas Wiedmann et al., “The Material Footprint of Nations,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112, no. 20 (May 19, 2015), 6271-6276, doi:10.1073/pnas.1220362110.

[34]. Enerdata, “Energy Intensity of GDP at Constant Purchasing Power Parities,” Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2015.

[35]. Thomas Wiedmann et al., “The Material Footprint of Nations.”

[36]. Jesse Jenkins and Armond Cohen, “The Role of Energy Intensity in Global Decarbonization: How Fast Can We Cut Energy Use?” The Energy Collective, March 16, 2015.

[37]. Peter Loftus et al., “A Critical Review of Global Decarbonization Scenarios: What Do They Tell Us about Feasibility?” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 6, no. 1 (2015): 93–112.

[38]. See also Jenkins and Cohen, “The Role of Energy Intensity in Global Decarbonization,” and Schalk Cloete, “Can We Really Decouple Living Standards from Energy Consumption?” The Energy Collective, June 8, 2015.

[39]. PriceWaterhouse Coopers, Two Degrees of Separation: Ambition and Reality; Low Carbon Economy Index 2014 (September 2014).

[40]. Kevin Anderson, “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Demands De-growth Strategies from Wealthier Nations,” kevinanderson.info, November 25, 2013.

[41]. United Nations, Framework Convention on Climate Change, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, FCCC/CP/2015/L.9 (December 12, 2015).

[42]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

[43]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III.

[44]. Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth (New York: Potomac Associates, 1972). Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2004).

[45]. Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Design, Not Disaster (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2008).

Chapter 6

[1]. International Energy Agency (IEA), “Scenarios and Projections,” accessed September 30, 2015.

[2] International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2014).

[3]. Jessica Lambert et al., “Energy, EROI and Quality of Life,” Energy Policy 64 (2014): 153–67, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.001.

[4]. Ida Kubiszewski, Cutler Cleveland, and Peter Endres, “Meta-analysis of Net Energy Return for Wind Power Systems,” Renewable Energy 35 (2010): 218–25, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2009.01.012.

[5] Marco Raugei, Pere Fullana-i-Palmer, and Vasilis Fthenakis, “The Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) of Photovoltaics: Methodology and Comparisons with Fossil Fuel Life Cycles,” Energy Policy 45 (June 2012): 576–82, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.008.

[6]. Pedro Prieto and Charles A. S. Hall, Spain’s Photovoltaic Revolution: The Energy Return on Investment (New York: Springer, 2011).

[7]. Graham Palmer, Energy in Australia: Peak Oil, Solar Power, and Asia’s Economic Growth (New York: Springer, 2014).

[8]. Michael Carbajales-Dale et al., “Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of Solar PV: An Attempt at Reconciliation,” Proceedings of the IEEE 103, no. 7 (2015): 995–99, doi:10.1109/JPROC.2015.2438471.

[9]. Michael Carbajales-Dale et al., “Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of Solar PV.

[10]. Khagendra P. Bhandari et al., “Energy Payback Time (EPBT) and Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) of Solar Photovoltaic Systems: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 47 (2015): 133–41, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2015.02.057.

[11]. Ida Kubiszewski, Cutler Cleveland, and Peter Endres, “Meta-analysis of Net Energy Return for Wind Power Systems.”

[12]. D. Weissbach et al., “Energy Intensities, EROIs (Energy Returned on Invested), and Energy Payback Times of Electricity Generating Power Plants,” Energy 52 (2013): 210–21, accessed October 2, 2015, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.029.

[13]. John Weber, “Machines Making Machines Making Machines,” sunweber blog, December 3, 2011.

[14]. The Sahara Solar Breeder Foundation has plans along these lines, but it is unclear what stage they have achieved. Accessed October 2, 2015.

[15]. Kris De Decker, “How sustainable Is PV Solar Power?,” Low Tech Magazine, April 2015.

[16]. Mark Z. Jacobson et al., “100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States,” Energy and Environmental Science 8, no. 7 (2015): 2093–2117.

[17]. Daniel J. Graeber, “Support for Renewables Lacking, Global Reports Find,” UPI, May 19, 2015, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2015/05/19/Support-for-renewables-lacking-global-reports-find/1711432033175/.

[18]. Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi, “A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables,” Scientific American, (November 1, 2009).

[19]. Frankfurt School–UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance (FS-UNEP) and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015–Chart Pack (Frankfurt: FS-UNEP, 2015). International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Investment Outlook 2014 Fact Sheet (Paris: IEA, 2014).

[20]. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “Military Expenditure,” accessed October 2, 2015.

[21]. Richard Heinberg, The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality (Gabriola Island, BC: New Society Publishers, 2011).

[22]. World Bank, “World Bank Open Data,” accessed September 7, 2015.

[23]. See the work of Emmanuel Saez at University of California–Berkeley.

[24] Alexander Gloy, “Analyze This—the Fed Is Not Printing Enough Money!,” Zero Hedge, September 8, 2012.

[25]. Based on median household income in the United States and the United Kingdom: Office for National Statistics (ONS), Middle Income Households, 1977–2010/11 (London: ONS, 2013). Carmen DeNavas-Walt and Bernadette D. Proctor, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014 (Washington: US Census Bureau, 2015).

[26]. International Energy Agency, Energy Efficiency Indicators for Public Electricity Production from Fossil Fuels (Paris, 2008).

[27]. International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2014).

[28]. “Improving IC Engine Efficiency,” University of Washington, accessed October 2, 2015.

[29]. “Electrical Motor Efficiency,” Engineering Toolbox, accessed October 2, 2015.

[30] Ryan Carlyle, “If All U.S. Cars Suddenly Became Electric, How Much More Electricity Would We Need?” Slate, May 2, 2014.

[31]. This figure is difficult to calculate globally. Space conditioning accounts for about 45 percent of residential energy use in the United States, less in Europe, and even less in China and India. The US Energy Information Administration shows about 52 quadrillion Btu of site use energy in the residential sector, or 92 counting electricity generation losses. Assuming that space conditioning is about 30 percent site use on average, then the reduction would be about 25 quadrillion Btu or 620 Mtoe. But not all of this is in the form of electricity, so starting at 92 overstates the savings. On the basis of site energy, the savings would be about 350 Mtoe.

[32]. Mike Haseler, “Enerconics: The Relationship between Energy and GDP,” Scottish Skeptic, October 18, 2013.

[33]. A significant problem with economic intensity measurements as done today, is that they include GDP from all sources (including trade), but energy use from only within the national boundaries. That is, the embodied energy in imports is not counted toward energy consumption (just as embodied energy of exports is not deducted from energy used). For a large importer such as the United States, the offshoring of manufacturing has led to efficiency improvements economy-wide that may be totally offset by the lower efficiency of production in China, for example. See Thomas Wiedmann et al., “The Material Footprint of Nations,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112, no. 20 (May 19, 2015), 6271-6276, doi:10.1073/pnas.1220362110.

[34]. Enerdata, “Energy Intensity of GDP at Constant Purchasing Power Parities,” Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2015.

[35]. Thomas Wiedmann et al., “The Material Footprint of Nations.”

[36]. Jesse Jenkins and Armond Cohen, “The Role of Energy Intensity in Global Decarbonization: How Fast Can We Cut Energy Use?” The Energy Collective, March 16, 2015.

[37]. Peter Loftus et al., “A Critical Review of Global Decarbonization Scenarios: What Do They Tell Us about Feasibility?” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 6, no. 1 (2015): 93–112.

[38]. See also Jenkins and Cohen, “The Role of Energy Intensity in Global Decarbonization,” and Schalk Cloete, “Can We Really Decouple Living Standards from Energy Consumption?” The Energy Collective, June 8, 2015.

[39]. PriceWaterhouse Coopers, Two Degrees of Separation: Ambition and Reality; Low Carbon Economy Index 2014 (September 2014).

[40]. Kevin Anderson, “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Demands De-growth Strategies from Wealthier Nations,” kevinanderson.info, November 25, 2013.

[41]. United Nations, Framework Convention on Climate Change, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, FCCC/CP/2015/L.9 (December 12, 2015).

[42]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

[43]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III.

[44]. Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth (New York: Potomac Associates, 1972). Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2004).

[45]. Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Design, Not Disaster (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2008).

Chapter 7

[1]. Mark Z. Jacobson et al., “100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States,” Energy and Environmental Science 8, no. 7 (2015): 2093–2117.”

[2]. Michael Brune, “All In,” Sierra Magazine, January/February 2014.

[3]. Werner Zittel, Jan Zerhusen, and Martin Zerta, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels—the Supply Outlook (Ottobrunn, Germany: Energy Watch Group, 2013).

[4]. Gavin Mudd, “The Future of Yellowcake: A Global Assessment of Uranium Resources and Mining,” Science of the Total Environment 472 (2014): 590–607, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.070.

[5]. Charles Hall and Bobby Powers, “The Energy Return of Nuclear Power. (EROI on the Web—Part 4 of 5),” Oil Drum, April 22, 2008.

[6]. Dino Grandoni, “Why It’s Taking the U.S. So Long to Make Fusion Energy Work,” Huffington Post, January 20, 2015.

[7]. International Energy Agency, Cost and Performance of Carbon Dioxide Capture from Power Generation (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2011).

[8]. This is our own calculation, based on the following sources. Density of compressed CO2 in CCS: David McCollum and Joan Ogden, Techno-economic Models for Carbon Dioxide Compression, Transport, and Storage & Correlations for Estimating Carbon Dioxide Density and Viscosity, Institute for Transportation Studies, University of California–Davis, October 2006. Consumption of coal: US Energy Information Administration, “Table 32. U.S. Coal Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2008–2014,” accessed October 3, 2015. Coal emissions factor: US Energy Information Administration, “Carbon Dioxide Emissions Coefficients,” accessed October 3, 2015.

[9]. This source (the US Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015) projects a 52 percent average premium of “advanced coal” with CCS over conventional coal, in terms of the levelized cost of electricity in $/MWh, (see table 1). Table 2 shows minimum and maximum ranges, from 12 to 84 percent for coal CCS versus coal.

[10]. Richard Heinberg and Howard Herzog, “Does ‘Clean Coal’ Technology Have a Future?” Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2014.

[11] Jack Kittredge, Soil Carbon Restoration: Can Biology Do the Job? (Northeast Organic Farming Association, August 2015).

[12]. R. A. Houghton, Brett Byers, and Alexander Nassikas, “A Role for Tropical Forests in Stabilizing Atmospheric CO2,” Nature Climate Change 5 (2015): 1022–23.

[13]. Jamie Lendino, “This Fully Transparent Solar Cell Could Make Every Window and Screen a Power Source (updated),” ExtremeTech, April 20, 2015.

[14]. Unlike microprocessors, which have a short design cycle and short lifetime on average, macrolevel technology is completely different. Coauthor David Fridley conducted an informal survey of his colleagues at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on their estimation of the average time from benchtop proof-of-concept to commercialization with market impact; the answers averaged 25 to 30 years. This is true for many technologies: the first US patent for solar cells was issued in 1888, Bell Labs was producing solar cells for the space program in the 1950s, and the first polysilicon solar cells as used today were produced in 1982. In other words, what we know now is pretty much what’s available for us to build on; or, if it hasn’t been invented yet, you’re working on faith, not science. (This equally applies to the “black swan” type discoveries.)

[15]. Avaneesh Pandey, “Artificial Photosynthesis System Created From a Nanowire-Bacteria Hybrid,” International Business Times, April 17, 2015.

[16]. Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects (Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2010).

[17]. See, for example, Linda Federico-O’Murchu, “How 3-D Printing Will Radically Change the World,” CNBC, May 11, 2014.

Chapter 8

[1]. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, The World Mortality Report 2013 (New York: United Nations, 2013). World Health Organization, World Health Statistics 2015 (Geneva: WHO Press, 2015). IFAD, FAO, and WFP, “The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015: Meeting the 2015 International Hunger Targets: Taking Stock of Uneven Progress.” (Rome: FAO, 2015). Simon Fraser University School for International Studies, Human Security Research Group, Human Security Report 2013: The Decline in Global Violence: Evidence, Explanation, and Contestation (Vancouver: Human Security Research Group, 2013).

[2]. World Health Organization, “Household Air Pollution and Health,” Fact Sheet No. 292, March 2014.

[3]. Brian Bienkowski, “Poor Communities Bear Greatest Burden from Fracking,” Scientific American, May 6, 2015.

[4]. Wang Ming-Xiao et al., “Analysis of National Coal-Mining Accident Data in China, 2001–2008,” Public Health Reports 126, no. 2 (March–April 2011): 270–75.

[5]. See Michael Watts, “Sweet and Sour: The Curse of Oil in the Niger Delta,” in The ENERGY Reader: Overdevelopment and the Delusion of Endless Growth, ed. Tom Butler, Daniel Lerch, and George Wuerthner (Healdsburg, CA: Watershed Media, 2012), p. 247-255.

[6]. Ivan Illich, Energy and Equity (London: Calder & Boyars, 1974).

[7]. World Bank, “GINI Index (World Bank Estimate),” World Development Indicators, accessed September 5, 2015.

[8] E. F. Schumacher, Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered (New York: Harper & Row, 1973).

[9]. Open Source Ecology, “Machines: Global Village Construction Set,” accessed September 5, 2015.

[10]. See http://www.growbiointensive.org/.

[11]. Helena Norberg-Hodge, Ancient Futures: Learning from Ladakh (San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1992).

[12]. Xie Yu and Zhou Xiang, “Income Inequality in Today’s China,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111, no. 19 (May 13, 2014): 6928–33. See also James Galbraith, “Global Inequality and Global Macroeconomics,” Journal of Policy Modeling 29, no. 4 (July–August 2007): 587-607.

[13]. Lancet, “Editorial: (Barely) Living in Smog: China and Air Pollution,” Lancet 383 (March 8, 2014): 845.

[14]. Of the many nongovernmental organizations working on these issues in the developing world, see especially the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy.

[15]. Josh Bivens and Lawrence Mishel, “Understanding the Historic Divergence between Productivity and a Typical Worker’s Pay,” Economic Policy Institute, September 2, 2015.

[16]. See the work of Michael Shuman, notably Local Economy Solution: How Innovative, Self-Financing “Pollinator” Enterprises Can Grow Jobs and Prosperity (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2015) and Going Local: Creating Self-Reliant Communities in a Global Age (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1998).

[17]. Paul Baer et al., The right to development in a climate constrained world: The Greenhouse Development Rights framework (Berlin: Heinrich Böll Foundation, 2008), February 16, 2009.

[18]. Peter Barnes, “Common Wealth Trusts: Structures of Transition,” Great Transition Initiative, August 2015.

[19]. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund was funded almost completely by oil and gas development in the North Sea, yet it is divesting its holdings from coal, palm oil, and other industries and companies deemed environmentally unsound, highlighting an interesting paradox.

[20]. Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation, “About the Fund,” accessed September 6, 2015.

[21]. Texas Education Agency, “Texas Permanent School Fund,” accessed September 6, 2015.

[22]. California Air Resources Board, “Cap-and-Trade Program,” accessed September 6, 2015, http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/capandtrade.htm.

[23]. Melanie Curry, “California Cap-and-Trade Is ‘Officially a Success,” Streetsblog California, November 10, 2015.

[24]. See, for example, David Baker, “Pope Blasts California’s Cap-and-Trade System,” SFGate, June 18, 2015, and Kate Sheppard, “Environmental Justice v. Cap-and-Trade,” American Prospect, February 28, 2008.

Chapter 9

[1]. Bill Gates, “We Need Energy Miracles,” Gatesnotes, the Blog of Bill Gates, June 25, 2014.

[2]. International Energy Agency, Clean Energy Progress Report: IEA Input to the Clean Energy Ministerial (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2011), accessed on September 6, 2015.

[3]. John Banusiewicz, US Department of Defense, “Hagel to Address ‘Threat Multiplier’ of Climate Change,” October 13, 2015.

[4]. “Wind and Solar Energy Are Increasingly Competitive. But a Lot Has to Change Before They Can Make a Real Impact,” Economist August 1, 2015.

[5]. Additional policies are gaining traction to advance local and regional targets. See Communities section in Chapter 10.

[6]. International Energy Agency, Clean Energy Progress Report: IEA Input to the Clean Energy Ministerial (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2011), 42–43.

[7] For more reading on FIT design issues, as well as common myths and facts about Germany’s energy transition, see: Diane Moss, Power and Profits in the Hands of the People: Lessons Learned from Germany’s Rural Renewable Energy Renaissance, (Washington, DC: Heinrich Böll Stiftung, 2012), p. VI–VIII; Diane Moss and Angelina Galiteva, “Clearing Up the Facts About Solar in Germany,” Renewables 100 Policy Institute, February 16, 2012; Angelina Galiteva and Diane Moss, Germany–California Learning and Collaboration Tour: Toward an Integrated Renewable Energy System, (Washington DC: Renewables 100 Policy Institute, July 2014), p. 9-15 and 19-21; and Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors, Paying for Renewable Energy: TLC at the Right Price, December 2009.

[8] International Energy Agency, Clean Energy Progress Report, 42-43.

[9] U.S. Energy Information Agency, “Most states have Renewable Portfolio Standards,” Today In Energy, February 3, 2012.

[10] Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, “Renewable and Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards,” Map, accessed on September 5, 2015.

[11]. J. Heeter et al., A Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards (US Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, May 2014).

[12]. Legislative Analyst’s Office (California), The 2014–15 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Auction Revenue Expenditure Plan, February 24, 2014.

[13] David Flemming, Energy and the Common Purpose, Descending the Energy Staircase with Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs), (London: The Lean Economy Connection, 2006).

[14] See www.renewables100.org and www.go100percent.org.

[15]. Yves Smith, “Military Spending Could Give Big Boost to Renewable Energy,” Naked Capitalism, July 7, 2015.

[16]. Citizen advocacy is often the impetus for these kinds of government actions. For example, the Bus Riders Union and Labor Community Strategy Center in Los Angeles are campaigning to flip national transport funding dollars from the current 80 percent roads/20 percent transit ratio to 20 percent roads/80 percent transit.

[17]. See R. D. Van Buskirk et al., “A Retrospective Investigation of Energy Efficiency Standards: Policies May Have Accelerated Long Term Declines in Appliance Costs,” Environmental Research Letters 9, no. 11 (November 13, 2014).

[18]. There are many examples and resources now for sustainability practices in city planning. See especially Congress for the New Urbanism and the “Sustaining Places” initiative of the American Planning Association.

[19]. City of Portland and Multnomah County, Climate Action Plan 2009: Year Two Progress Report (April 2012).

[20]. Divya Pandey, Madhoolika Agrawal, and Jai Shanker Pandey, “Carbon Footprint: Current Methods of Estimation,” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 178, no. 1–4 (2011): 135–60, doi:10.1007/s10661-010-1678-y. Pandey et al. break carbon footprint analysis into three tiers: tier I is onsite fuel consumption, tier II considers emissions embodied in purchases of energy, tier III considers all other offsite emissions, such as international transport and production emissions in other countries. According to Pandey et al. tier III is not required by most GHG consultancies and is often omitted from carbon assessments (p. 145).

[21]. Thomas Wiedmann, “A Review of Recent Multi-region Input–Output Models Used for Consumption-Based Emission and Resource Accounting.” Ecological Economics 69, no. 2 (2009): 211–22, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.08.026. Wiedmann also used the term Input–Output or I-O accounting.

[22]. Pandey, “Carbon footprint,” 145. Consumption-based accounting falls under tier III.

[23]. World Maritime News, “COP21: Paris Remains Silent on Shipping and Aviation,” December 14, 2015.

[24]. David McCullum, Gregory Gould, and David Greene, Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Aviation and Marine Transportation: Mitigation Potential and Policies (Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2009), accessed on September 5, 2015.

[25]. While aviation emissions are not addressed in the Paris climate agreement, Europe has nevertheless begun regulating them (see http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/aviation/index_en.htm). Indeed, it may be easier legally to regulate aviation emissions than to regulate embedded emissions in traded goods, the latter of which are regulated by the World Trade Organization.

Chapter 10

[1]. One such tool can be found at http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/calculator.

[2]. Kris De Decker, “If We Insulate Our Houses, Why Not Our Cooking Pots?” Low-Tech Magazine, July 1, 2014.

[3]. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Top Ten Utility Green Power Programs (as of December 2014),” accessed on September 9, 2015.

[4]. See Michal Shuman, Local Dollars, Local Sense: How to Shift Your Money from Wall Street to Main Street and Achieve Real Prosperity (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2012).

[5]. Transition Network, accessed on September 9, 2015.

[6]. See http://climateprotection.org.

[7]. LEAN Energy US, “CCA by State,” accessed on September 5, 2015.

[8]. United States Department of Agriculture Office of Communications, “News Release: USDA Celebrates National Farmers Market Week, August 4–10,” Release No. 0155.13, accessed on September 5, 2015.

[9]. Sustainable Economics Law Center, “City Policies,” accessed on September 9, 2015.

Chapter 11

[1]. Kris De Decker, “How to Build a Low-Tech Internet,” Low-Tech Magazine, October 25, 2015.

[2]. Kevin Anderson, “Duality in Climate Science,” Nature Geoscience 8 (October 12, 2015): 898–900.

[3]. Global Footprint Network, Living Planet Report 2014 (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, 2014).

[4]. National Resources Defense Council, “NRDC Fact Sheet: California’s Energy Efficiency Success Story,” July 2013.

[5]. US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product,” accessed September 4, 2015.

[6]. Richard Heinberg, “The Brief, Tragic Reign of Consumerism,” Green Social Thought 64 (Spring 2014): 18–20.

[7]. See http://www.degrowth.org/.

[8]. See http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-economics/.

[9]. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, The World Population Situation in 2014 (New York: United Nations, 2014).

[10]. See http://populationinstitute.org/.

[11]. See http://populationmedia.org/.

[12]. For a glimpse at what kind of energy has to be expended to transport and assemble a single wind turbine, it is worth watching this video of heavy vehicles and machinery doing the job in Ireland.

[13]. Michael Stone and Richard Heinberg, “You Can’t Do Just One Thing: A Conversation with Richard Heinberg,” Center for Ecoliteracy, May 9, 2012.

[14]. Susan Kraemer, “Zero Carbon Cement Production with Solar Thermal,” Clean Technica, April 10, 2012. This article is an example, but the “cheaper to make” depends on the sale of the resultant carbon monoxide (CO), the price of which they cite is current. If the market were expanded with cement CO, then the price would drop dramatically since there would be over a billion metric tons of CO to sell.

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